Black Widow Box Office Projections Look Really Bad

John F. Trent |

Jun 24, 2021

Box office tracking and forecast website Box Office Pro recently released their projections for Disney and Marvel Studios’ upcoming Black Widow film and they do not look good.

Box Office Pro predicts that Black Widow will have an opening weekend between $65 and $90 million. However, they specifically home in and predict the movie will make $77 million in its opening weekend.

As for its domestic total they believe it will make between $155 and $225 million.

These numbers are abysmal for a Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) film despite Box Office Pro trying to put a spin on them claiming that the movie “is still the kind of event tentpole with four-quadrant appeal that’s likely to attract more people back to theaters and set new pandemic era benchmarks at the domestic and international box office.”

(L-R): Black Widow/Natasha Romanoff (Scarlett Johansson) and Taskmaster in Marvel Studios’ BLACK WIDOW, in theaters and on Disney+ with Premier Access. Photo by Jay Maidment. ©Marvel Studios 2021. All Rights Reserved.

If you look at previous Marvel Cinematic Universe films, the lowest opening weekend was The Incredible Hulk back in 2008. It had an opening weekend of $55.4 million.

In fact, there are only five MCU films that have made less than $77 million in their opening weekend.

Aside from The Incredible Hulk, the other four films are Ant-Man, Captain America: The First Avenger, Thor, and Ant-Man and the Wasp.

Ant-Man made $57.2 million, Captain America: The First Avenger brought in $65 million, Thor grossed $65.7 million, and Ant-Man and the Wasp raked in $75.8 million.

If you want to give Black Widow the benefit of the doubt that it will hit the higher end of Box Office Pro’s prediction at $90 million, it only moves up two spots beating Doctor Strange, which brought in $85 million, and Thor: The Dark World, which earned $85.7 million.

Black Widow/Natasha Romanoff (Scarlett Johansson) in Marvel Studios’ BLACK WIDOW, in theaters and on Disney+ with Premier Access. Photo courtesy of Marvel Studios. ©Marvel Studios 2021. All Rights Reserved.

However, if you factor in inflation, the film falls farther down the list. Black Widow would be the third worst performing film on opening weekend if it made $77 million.

The only two films it would beat would be The Incredible Hulk and Ant-Man.

Again even if you believe it will hit $90 million, it’s still a poor performance after adjusting for inflation. It only beats out Ant-Man and the Wasp, Thor, Captain America: The First Avenger, Ant-Man, and The Incredible Hulk.

(L-R): Black Widow/Natasha Romanoff (Scarlett Johansson) and Yelena (Florence Pugh) in Marvel Studios’ BLACK WIDOW, in theaters and on Disney+ with Premier Access. Photo courtesy of Marvel Studios. ©Marvel Studios 2021. All Rights Reserved.

As for Box Office Pro’s total domestic prediction. It looks even worse than the opening weekend depending on which end of the spectrum you look at.

If you look at the low end of $155 million, the only film it beats is The Incredible Hulk, which grossed $134.8 million. But if you factor in inflation, The Incredible Hulk beats it by $13 million. That would make Black Widow the worst performing MCU film of all time.

At the high end of $225 million, it is still low on the totem pole only beating Ant-Man and the Wasp, Thor: The Dark World, Thor, Ant-Man, Captain America: The First Avenger, and The Incredible Hulk.

However, adjusting for inflation shows a little bit of a different story. It only beats out Thor, Ant-Man, Captain America: The First Avenger, and The Incredible Hulk.

What are your expectations for Black Widow?

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