‘Supergirl’ Tracking Is Equal to ‘The Flash’
Early tracking for Supergirl (once known as Woman of Tomorrow) is very bearish, which is to say it’s not looking good. The film releases on the 26th of this month, and projections have settled at a soft $55 million domestic opening weekend.
That is decidedly less than Superman’s $125 million domestic debut tally last summer. Those numbers are often questioned, and even refuted by some outlets, but it’s predicted Supergirl will rake in half that haul, nonetheless.
The $55M figure is disappointing by itself; however, the optics are a lot worse for The Girl of Steel than we first imagined. The number is the same as the total The Flash, a historic box office bomb, opened back in 2023 — arguably killing whatever viability was left in the remixed DCEU.
Analysts don’t expect Supergirl to have stronger legs even though it has a few things in its favor that Flash didn’t. The latter spent years in development hell, and when cameras finally were ready to roll, the film’s star couldn’t stay out of trouble — yet couldn’t be fired. Marketing pivoted to the return of Michael Keaton, which fizzled into a one-off appearance despite plans in the works.
Supergirl didn’t have the same headaches, to be fair. New Maiden of Might Milly Alcock has made comments that are ruffling feathers, but she is not nearly stoking controversy to the degree Ezra Miller did. The movie’s budget is also slightly leaner than Flash’s reported budget.
Still, the Maiden’s maiden adventure has a steep and tough hill to climb. When factoring in marketing, expenses climb to $245M, giving the film a potential break-even point of $425M that will depend heavily on the global gross.
While it could reach that mark miraculously, the DCU entry has to overcome lukewarm public interest. According to The Quorum, general public awareness sits at 53 percent, which is flat for a caped crusade by any measure.
Unfortunately for DC Studios, audience interest metrics recently slipped by two percent, from 48 to 46 percent. The dip is attributed to superhero fatigue and the usual competition, which includes the fifth Toy Story and the next Minions movie.
It’s a stacked summer full of IP-driven sequels and reboots, and dark horses like Obsession and Backrooms. Solid word of mouth and walk-up ticket sales could make the difference — assuming Supergirl isn’t actually crashing AMC’s servers.
But when all is said and done, and all numbers are calculated and accounted for, the film might not do any better than The Flash or even The Marvels.
