The long range box office tracking for Daniel Craig’s last James Bond film, No Time to Die, have arrived.
Box office tracking website Box Office Pro predicts that No Time to Die will earn $88 million in its opening weekend with a window between $75 million and $100 million.
They predict the movie will earn a total of $269 million in its domestic run at the box office with a window between $200 million and $290 million.
Box Office Pro believes the first trailer for the film “generated strong online sentiment and engagement across major social media outlets relative to other adult-targeted franchises.”
They also believe that the “expansive cast” that includes Rami Malek, Lashana Lynch, Ana de Armas, Naomie Harris, Ben Whishaw, Jeffrey Wright, Ralph Fiennes, and Christopher is a major draw.
Another positive for Box Office Pro is that this film is expected to be the finale for Craig’s Bond and will tie-up his character’s story that began in Casino Royale.
They also believe that Phoebe Waller-Bridge’s addition to the writing room suggests “the film could gain additional appeal among female audiences with her contributions to the story.”
Along with Waller-Bridge, they believe that Billie Eilish’s attachment to the film’s title song “should generate major pop culture synergy given her rise to fame over the past year, not to mention appeal to a younger-than-usual demographic for the franchise.”
They also cite the time in between this film and the last film, Spectre, “has likely given the brand enough time to breath and allow anticipation among general audiences to brew again.” They point to the four years between Quantum of Solace and Skyfall to justify this point.
Finally, they believe the film is well-placed without any real competition. A Quiet Place II debuts three weeks before it and Black Widow opens three weeks after No Time to Die. They believe this could open “a corridor for lengthy premium screen allocation and strong legs if word of mouth is similar to that of Casino Royale and Skyfall.”
While those are the positives, they do point out there are negatives as well. They specifically point to mixed critic and audience reactions to Spectre and the fact the trailer indicates the film is tied to Spectre. Box Office Pro notes, “it remains to be seen whether this film can stand on its own and/or overcome that film’s somewhat divided reactions.”
They also criticize the marketing for not highlighting this is Craig’s final Bond film. Box Office Pro is also skeptical regarding the switch in distribution rights from Sony to MGM, “There’s something of a question mark around what to expect from the heart of the film’s primary ad push this spring. To that end, final marketing in the pre-release window — as well as critical reception — will be key to the film’s opening and long-term prospects.”
What do you make of these predictions? Do you think No Time to Die will do $88 million in its opening weekend? What are your predictions?