Following another huge decline in box office grosses for Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, analyst Valliant Renegade declared the film a “bankrupt enterprise.”
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania declined 60% in its third weekend from its second weekend. The film only grossed $12.8 million domestically. It has only grossed $188 million total domestically and $232.6 million internationally for a global gross of $420.7 million.
Analyzing these numbers, YouTuber Valliant Renegade said, “Even after a full three weekends in release it is unlikely that Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania is even going to breach $400 million at this point.”
He added, “This movie is done, folks. I think $500 million is almost entirely off the table. And this movie may conclude its box office run both here in the U.S. and abroad maybe somewhere around $450 million. And that is a big loss for The Walt Disney Company.”
He went on to explain, “That means that, at that point, effectively any and every dollar that they spent on the marketing campaign for this film above and beyond the $200 million they spent to produce it has all been burned up in flames.”
“And that figure, as we continue to remind folks for these Marvel movies, a $100 million is a very low floor,” he continued. “It’s at least that much, but more likely it’s probably closer to $125 if not even slightly higher. Marvel and Disney spend a lot of money on these things. They need to get the word because they need not only the films to do well, but they need merchandise sales to pick up.”
Later in the video he asserts, “We’re looking at a movie that is going to have a $100 million loss at least on the table of discussion here at this point. If this movie does indeed finish up around $450 million which is very likely to happen right now, we’re looking at a pretty significant loss for The Walt Disney Company, at least around $75 million, but it could be higher pending on what exactly they spent at the end of the day to market this film.
“We know there was a lot of reshoots involved. This was a film that was supposed to originally come in around $160 million production budget and that ballooned to $200 million after a bunch of reshoots were done,” he said.
Fellow box office analyst, YouTuber OMB Reviews also shared his grim thoughts on Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’s box office grosses after the film’s third weekend.
“This film saw a 70% drop week one to week two. Two to three 61%. This film is dropping like a light. So there’s actually a decent chance for this film to, again, barely cross $475 million let alone get to $500 million,” he asserted. “I still think it’s possible because it is a Disney film, it is a Marvel film and the Marvel fans are still cult-like enough to be able to show up for movies like this to at least get it to that.”
He continued, “Let’s just say, especially if you go by the $600 million break-even point that some people are going by things do not look very good for this or for any other film. And when you take into account [that there are] so many less tickets being sold for this film versus the previous ones, it is just night and day.”
Comparing the film to the previous two films in the franchise, OMB Reviews says, “We are now starting to see not only the numbers going well below that of the second Ant-Man and of the first Ant-Man film when compared in its first week, in its first run.”
He goes on to point out that Ant-Man and the Wasp had a higher third weekend gross than Quantumania, “This film, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania is actually doing a lot worse. And so you do not have to wait very long for eventually Ant-Man and the Wasp to be be able to catch up to the numbers [of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania] That is, I think, something that should be very concerning for [Marvel Studios].
He explained, “Because Ant-Man and the Wasp ended at $627 million. Ant-Man ended at $465 million. At $419 million, this film already pacing far behind that movie even though it did get a bit of a jump start [with its opening weekend haul]. Let’s just say it’s not looking very good for the prospects for Quantumania. And that could also be an indication early on of the prospects for the MCU going forward as well,” he concluded.
To this point, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania has grossed $188 million domestically after 18 days in theaters. Ant-Man and the Wasp had only grossed $168 million through 18 days. However, Quantumania had an opening weekend of $106.1 million while Ant-Man and the Wasp only opened with a $75.8 million gross. Ant-Man and the Wasp has already shaved off $10 million of Quantumania’s initial lead.
If you factor in inflation, Ant-Man and the Wasp has already surpassed Quantumania as $167.2 million in 2018 would be $199.2 million.
To look at it from another angle, the film is pacing far below all of the Marvel Studios films that released last year.
It is currently the fifth worst grossing Marvel Cinematic Universe film without factoring in inflation only besting The Incredible Hulk, Captain America: The First Avenger, Black Widow, and Eternals.
However, if you factor in inflation it’s still behind Captain America: The First Avenger and is the fourth worst grossing MCU film.
What do you make of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’s box office grosses and what do you think it portends for the future of the Marvel Cinematic Universe?