Box Office Projections Continue To Decline For James Gunn’s ‘Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3’
Box office predictions and projections continued to decline for James Gunn’s upcoming Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 film.
Box office tracking website Box Office Pro initially predicted at the beginning of April the film would gross between $120 million and $155 million in its opening weekend and go on to bring in a total domestic gross between $288 and $403 million.
Two weeks later Box Office Pro significantly adjusted their predictions down. They adjusted their opening weekend gross down to $110 million to $135 million and the total domestic gross to $264 million to $351 million.
On April 28th, they adjusted their predictions down even further. For opening weekend they kept their low end prediction of $110 million, but dropped the high end to $130 million. Despite lowering the top end of the opening weekend, the total domestic gross predictions remained steady.
Box Office Pro noted their predictions were even initially so low due to initial pre-sales for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 tracking below all post-Endgame releases other than Black Widow and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings.
The outlet also indicated “recent audience over multiple MCU sequels may start taking a moderate toll on the broader franchise in the short term.
Variety shared a similar opinion to Box Office Pro predicting the film will bring in $120 million in its opening weekend at the domestic box office.
However, they note that unnamed “independent tracking services” are predicting the film might only bring in between $110 million and $118 million. As for why these predictions are so low, Variety notes it could be due to, “either mounting indifference to the newest phase in the Marvel Cinematic Universe or a sign that Disney waited too long to conclude the Guardians story.”
These predictions are par for the course with the current trend for Marvel Cinematic Universe films. Most recently Ant-Man and the Wasp Quantumania had an opening weekend domestic gross of $106.1 million.
The film went on to have a total domestic gross of $212.9 million and another $251.5 million at the international box office for a worldwide gross of $464.5 million. The film’s production budget was reportedly $200 million albeit that number might actually be higher due to the fact Marvel Studios was filming reshoots a month before the film arrived in theaters.
The film ended up losing probably around $40 million on the conservative end.
Not only did Quantumania lose money, but it failed outperform its Ant-Man predecessors without even factoring in inflation. The first Ant-Man grossed $518.8 million while Ant-Man and the Wasp grossed $623.1 million.
Quantumania did outperform Ant-Man’s unadjusted domestic gross. The film grossed $180.2 million back in 2015 at the domestic box office. However, it failed to top Ant-Man and the Wasp’s unadjusted domestic gross. That film grossed $216.6 million at the domestic box office back in 2018.
RELATED: James Gunn Says Adam Warlock Is “Definitely Not A Good Guy” In ‘Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3’
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 looks like it will be following in Quantumania’s footsteps. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 grossed $389.8 million in domestic theaters back in 2017. It would gross another $479.2 million internationally for a global gross of $869 million. The film had an opening weekend domestic gross of $146.5 million.
Guardians of the Galaxy grossed $333.7 million domestically and another $437 million internationally for a global gross of $770.8 million back in 2014. The film had an opening weekend of $94.3 million, but had extremely long legs with the second week box office only dropping 55%. It’s third week would only drop 40% and the fourth week dropped only 32%. In fact, it’s fifth week only had a 1% drop.
Most recent Marvel Cinematic Universe releases have not had long legs, but have instead had big opening weekends and then massive drop offs in subsequent weeks. Quanutmania had a huge 70% drop in its second weekend and then another 60% drop in its third weekend.
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever had a 63% drop in its second weekend and then a 31% drop in its third weekend. Its fourth weekend declined 62%. Thor: Love and Thunder also declined 68% in its second weekend. It dropped another 52% in its third weekend.
These predictions for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 do not look optimistic for the film or for the wider Marvel Cinematic Universe.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’s official description states, “In Marvel Studios’ “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” our beloved band of misfits are settling into life on Knowhere. But
it isn’t long before their lives are upended by the echoes of Rocket’s turbulent past. Peter Quill, still reeling from the loss of Gamora, must rally his team around him on a dangerous mission to save Rocket’s life—a mission that, if not completed successfully, could quite possibly lead to the end of the Guardians as we know them.”
The film arrives in theaters on May 5, 2023.
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