A new report claims that The Walt Disney Company’s upcoming live-action The Little Mermaid is expected to perform worse in its opening weekend compared to the recent box office bomb of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania.
Variety reports The Little Mermaid is only expected to bring in $100 million in its opening weekend in domestic theaters and another $80 million in international markets for a global gross of only $180 million.
The outlet does note that the film could bring in another $20 million to $25 million at the domestic box office on Monday, which happens to be Memorial Day.
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, which lost money for The Walt Disney Company, brought in $104 million domestically in its opening weekend and another $121 million from international markets for a global total of $225 million.
The latest animation to live-action film for The Walt Disney Company that released to domestic theaters, The Lion King, had a domestic opening of $191.7 million. Variety reported the film had an international opening of $269 million. The film had a global opening of $460.7 million.
While Variety reports the film is only expected to bring in $120 to $125 million domestically in its four-day holiday release, box office tracking website, Box Office Pro, reports “independent models now point to a potential four-day bow north of $135 million.”
The outlet goes on to predict that The Little Mermaid will gross between $130 million and $155 million in its 4-day opening. Specifically, they predict the film will earn $149 million through 4-days. However, when looking at the traditional 3-day weekend, they predict the film will only gross $117.8 million.
Not only is the film tracking well below box office failure Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania through its 3-day weekend globally, but it’s well behind last year’s big Memorial Day weekend release, Top Gun: Maverick.
Top Gun: Maverick had a traditional 3-day opening weekend domestic gross of $126.7 million. In it’s 4-day weekend the film surged to $160.5 million domestically. The film would bring in another $124 million in its international 3-day gross for a global 3-day gross of $250.7 million.
In fact, based on the predictions from Variety The Little Mermaid would also be beat by other previous Memorial Day releases such as Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End, which grossed $114.7 million back in 2007, X-Men: The Last Stand grossed $102.7 million back in 2006, and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull grossed $100.1 million back in 2008.
If you adjust for inflation, these predictions would see the film not even make it into the top 20 highest grossing films for the 3-day Memorial Day weekend.
Looking at the 4-Day Memorial Day weekend the film still falls behind Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. If it hits the $125 million number it does edge out X-Men: The Last Stand, but if it only hits the $120 million mark it falls behind X-Men: The Last Stand.
However, adjusting for inflation the film would be in close competition with Solo: A Star Wars Story for the 16th highest grossing film for the 4-day Memorial Day weekend. Solo: A Star Wars Story was another film where The Walt Disney Company lost money.
Variety also reports the film had a production budget of $250 million, which means the movie needs to make at least $625 million to break even.
What do you make of these box office predictions for The Little Mermaid? How much do you think the film will bring in domestically? What about internationally and globally?