The upcoming Pixar film Elemental is predicted to have the company’s worst opening weekend in its entire history.
Variety reports the film is tracking to have a $35 million opening weekend. Box Office tracking website Box Office Pro predicted back in May the the film would gross anywhere between $28 million and $39 million in its opening weekend and go on to gross between $89 million and $155 million in its entire theatrical run at the domestic box office.
More recently, Box Office Pro predicted the film would have an opening weekend between $31 million and $41 million. They would specifically claim it would only earn $33 million.
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Even if the film hits the $41 million mark it will have the worst opening of any Pixar-produced film ever. According to The-Numbers, the three Pixar films with the worst opening weekend box offices are Toy Story with $29.1 million, Onward with $39.1 million, and The Good Dinosaur with $39.1 million.
However, if you adjust for inflation that Toy Story opening weekend gross comes to $58.1 million. Onward’s opening weekend clocks in at $45.9 million. And The Good Dinosaur’s opening weekend grosses come in at $50.2 million.
The poor opening weekend means the film is likely to be a box office bomb given The Hollywood Reporter notes that most Pixar films “are believed to cost around $200 million to produce.”
If the film has a $200 million production budget it needs to make around $500 million to break even on the conservative side using a 2.5x factor. It could need to make $600 million if you use a 3x factor.
According to the film’s production notes the film is “set in Element City, where Fire-, Water-, Earth- and Air- residents live together. The story introduces Ember, a tough, quick-witted and fiery young woman, whose friendship with a fun, sappy, go-with-the-flow guy named Wade challenges her beliefs about the world they live in and the person she wants to be.”
The film’s director Peter Sohn revealed he self-inserted himself and his wife into the characters, “I started layering in my relationship with my wife—I’m Korean and she’s American, half Italian. I hid the relationship from my parents at first because they—in an old-school way—wanted me to marry someone Korean. My grandmother’s dying words were literally ‘Marry Korean!'”
Sohn would go on to claim the movie is “about understanding our parents as people. From that understanding comes an appreciation for the sacrifices that they make for their kids. My parents emigrated from Korea in the early 1970s, so I was born there and raised with Korean traditions, language, culture in the very American New York City. That led to some culture clashes along the way between first and second generation. I took for granted the trials and tribulations they must’ve experienced.”
Elemental arrives in theaters on June 16, 2023.
What do you make of these box office predictions for Elemental?