Disney expects Captain Marvel to have a monster opening weekend with $150 million opening weekend and the film to go on to bring in $450 million at the domestic box office.
Disney’s projections are up from the most recent projections which indicated the film could do anywhere from $80 million to $120 million on opening weekend. However, they do fit in line with the long term projection from Box Office Pro which estimated the movie would bring in between $140 to $180 million.
To put that number in perspective, Disney is expecting Captain Marvel to have the 7th highest grossing opening weekend of all of their Marvel Studios films. They are expecting Captain Marvel to only have a lower opening weekend box office to Avengers: Infinity War, The Avengers, Black Panther, Avengers: Age of Ultron, Captain America: Civil War, and Iron Man 3.
As for the estimates for its total domestic gross, Disney is expecting Captain Marvel to be the fifth highest grossing Marvel Studios film of all time. The only films to beat the estimate are Black Panther, Avengers: Infinity War, The Avengers, and Avengers: Age of Ultron. Those are some massive expectations for an origin film.
Our source indicates Disney will be taking approximately 90% of the box office take. That’s not uncommon. The Week reports “an extremely hot first-run movie may start out with distribution fees up to 90 percent (in other words, 90 percent of the fees during that time are going back to the studio). However, they add those fees will decrease the longer the film is in theaters due to audience demand to see the film decreasing. They also note an “aggregate across all films and all times, 60 percent is a reasonable estimate” for the studio to take from the box office.
What do you make of these estimates? Do you think Captain Marvel will bring in $150 million opening weekend and $450 million domestically?