Box office tracking website Box Office Pro recently released their long-range tracking predictions for the upcoming James Bond film, No Time To Die.
Box Office Pro claims the film could have the largest domestic opening weekend of 2021. They predict the film will earn between $56 and $85 million in its opening weekend.
If it hits that high number, the movie will have the largest domestic opening weekend at the box office in 2021. The current holder is Black Widow with $80.3 million. Shang-Chi sits in second with $75.3 million.
The rest of the top five are F9: The Fast Saga at $70 million, A Quiet Place: Part II at $47.5 million, and Jungle Cruise at $35 million.
As you can see even if it comes in on the low end of the prediction the film will claim the fourth spot for the top domestic opening weekend box office haul.
If it earns $70.5 million, which is the mid point between $56 and $85 million, it will have the third highest opening weekend.
As for the film’s domestic gross total, Box Office Pro predicts it could earn anywhere between $140 million and $240 million.
The current top grossing film is Black Widow with $183.4 million. Shang-Chi will more than likely take that spot by the time No Time To Die releases as it currently has grossed $178.4 million at the domestic box office.
In third place is F9: The Fast Saga with a total haul of $172.9 million. Next is A Quiet Place: Part II with $160 million. In fifth is Jungle Cruise with $112.7 million.
So, if the film hits that high end marker it will become the highest grossing film of 2021. However, if it ends up on the low end. It will take the fifth spot.
If the film does $190 million, which is the mid point of $140 and $240 million, it would still become the highest grossing film, albeit Shang-Chi is more than likely to surpass that mark by the time No Time To Die arrives in domestic theaters.
What’s interesting about Box Office Pro’s prediction is they claim the film “has generated strong search trends, online sentiment, and engagement across social media outlets relative to other adult-targeted franchises.”
However, a simple Google Trends search puts that claim into question. The upcoming Venom: Let There Be Carnage film significantly outpaces No Time To Die in search interest.
Another factor that Box Office Pro cites is “fans are enthusiastic about the film’s expansive cast — which includes recent Oscar-winner Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) as the mysterious villain, Lashana Lynch and Ana de Armas in newcomer roles, and the return of Naomie Harris, Ben Whishaw, Jeffrey Wright, Ralph Fiennes, and Christoph Waltz as their memorable characters from previous Craig-era Bond films.”
Most of the chatter I’ve seen is that fans are extremely leery of the cast especially Lashana Lynch’s Nomi character and the rumors and reports that she will be be 007 in the film.
In fact, Lynch has addressed the backlash to these rumors and reports on numerous occasions. And just recently, Craig tried to do some damage control by claiming that James Bond should not be a woman.
Not only do they believe the cast will drive people to theaters, but they also claim the inclusion of Phoebe Waller-Bridge in the writing room will as well.
They claim, “The addition of Phoebe Waller-Bridge (creator of Fleabag and Killing Eve) in the writing process has generated significant buzz among fan circles, suggesting the film could gain additional appeal among female audiences with her contributions to the story.”
While it might be enough to bring some female moviegoers in, it could drive even more men away as Phoebe Waller-Bridge has become synonymous with in-your-face political activism storytelling.
And the male audience is one Box Office Pro is counting on as they note, “Pandemic recovery at the box office has endured peaks and valleys this year, with some of the most notable performances coming from films with strong male audience appeal. 007 clearly falls into that wheelhouse.”
Although they also claim, “While male moviegoers have been integral to box office hits this year, Bond’s core audience skews notably older than the likes of F9 or Marvel films due to their youth and family appeal. No Time to Die will need some of the most hesitant-to-return moviegoers — women over 35 — to turn up if this film is to have a chance at either the pandemic opening weekend record (Black Widow‘s $80.4 million) or the franchise’s own three highest debuts (Skyfall‘s $88.4 million, Spectre‘s $70.4 million, and Quantum‘s $67.5 million) on the domestic front.”
Even if No Time To Die hits the high end predictions, it’s highly unlikely the film will be profitable.
Using MovieWeb’s estimated production budget for No Time To Die at $314 million, YouTuber OMB Reviews explains how much the film will need to make to be profitable.
He says, “Let’s go ahead and put forward their nonsense of $314 million. Alright. So that means the film does cost around $450 to $464 million when you add in marketing cost because you have to basically multiple it by 1.5, is what gets you your typical marketing cost.”
“That of course is not taking into account that the film likely had more spent on marketing because of the fact that it’s been delayed and they’ve already spent a lot of money on marketing in the first place, before it was delayed the first time. And so, therefore the movie could easily have cost upwards of $500 million or so,” Odin continues.
He later adds, “But when you look at just box office, the number, the rule of thumb that’s been around for a long time has been, no, they make around 60% of their entire box office.”
“So when you take the 60% into account, you are looking at a film that needs to make closer to around $700 to $750 million to break even,” he asserts.
What do you make of these long range predictions for No Time To Die? Do you plan to see No Time To Die in theaters?