The box office projections for Marvel Studios’ upcoming Black Panther: Wakanda Forever significantly declined leading up to the film’s release date on November 11th.
Box office tracking website Box Office Pro originally predicted on October 14th the film would earn in its opening weekend anywhere between $180 million and $225 million.
They also predicted it would gross a total of anywhere between $445 million and $590 million for its entire domestic run in theaters.
However, those projections have significantly declined in Box Office Pro’s most recent projections for the film as we get closer to the film’s release. On November 4th, they predicted the film will earn anywhere between $170 million and $205 million in its opening weekend.
Not only were the opening weekend projections lowered, but so was its total domestic gross. It declined to anywhere between $435 million and $543 million.
Explaining this decline, Box Office Pro wrote, “Wakanda Forever‘s overall range has slightly widened as pre-sales for the most recent seven-day period fell slightly short of projections (though not enough to be concerned about), while reactions to the recently released second trailer weren’t as measurably strong as the original teaser (which scored among the highest of any recent Marvel film, to be fair).”
They also noted, “Pinpoint forecasts tentatively lean toward the low end of current ranges.”
Reacting to these declining projections, YouTuber Valliant Renegade opined, “And I’m sure a lot of people are thinking, ‘But Valliant that’s still a hell of a haul. That’s a great opening weekend. That’s a good run. The movie should still be profitable.’ And you’d be correct.”
“However, usually when we see the trends moving in this direction it portends something that’s going to be even less than what they’re looking at now,” he explained.
Valliant Renegade went on to caution his viewers that they should not compare this film to the first film explaining, “The first Black Panther movie came out when Marvel’s Cinematic Universe was at its peak in terms of popularity and its earnings potential all the way across the board from film to film with rare to no exception.”
He later noted, “It is highly doubtful to me that this film is going to ride anywhere near to the success the first one did given the fact that it has basically nothing the first one did.”
Valliant Renegade would close out his video sharing his own predictions for the film’s box office performance, “I suspect that Black Panther is going to finish its run somewhere in the neighborhood of around $800 million globally in between Thor: Love and Thunder and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness.”
“I don’t see it breaking out beyond that unless there’s some major surprise,” he posited. “Audience reactions to this film would have to be off the scale or there would have to be probably some other shenanigans going on, which who knows these days.”
“But it just doesn’t look like this move has any traction regardless of what the media is really putting out there and I don’t think that’s going to translate into anything that Disney is going to be terribly happy with at the end of the day, but they might be happy to skate by just breaking even at this point considering the rest of Marvel’s Phase Four,” he concluded.
The first Black Panther film grossed $1.3 billion at the global box office. It earned $700 million at the domestic box office alone and $636.4 million internationally.
Thor: Love and Thunder grossed $745.2 million globally earlier this year. It earned $343.2 million domestically and $401.9 million internationally. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness grossed $952.2 million globally. $411.3 million was grossed domestically and $540.8 million internationally.
What do you make of these Black Panther: Wakanda Forever box office predictions significantly following in less than a month? How much do you think the film will earn?