Report: ‘The Marvels’ Box Office Predictions Already In Decline
A new report claims that the box office projections for Marvel Studios’ upcoming The Marvels film are already in decline.
Deadline reports that box office analytics firm Quorum projected two weeks ago that the movie would bring in around $90 million in its opening weekend.
However, the outlet reports the “four-week lead tracking” for the film is coming in at $75 million to $80 million. That’s a decline of 11% on the low end and 16% on the high end.
For comparison, 2019’s Captain Marvel had an opening weekend of $153.4 million and went on to gross $426.8 million at the domestic box office. The film grossed $1.1 billion globally.
If these projections pan out, that means The Marvels’ opening weekend box office will decline by over 50% compared to Captain Marvel at the low end of $75 million. It’s a 47% decline on the high end at $80 million.
This report also comes in the wake of Box Office Pro’s long-range predictions that claimed the film would have a domestic opening weekend between $50 million and $75 million.
They also predicted the film would only gross between $121 million and $189 million in its entire box office run.
— Boxoffice Pro (@BoxOffice) October 12, 2023
A $75 million opening weekend would give The Marvels the sixth worst opening weekend in Marvel Cinematic Universe history. The movie would only best Eternals ($71.2M), Thor ($65.7M), Captain America: The First Avenger ($65M), Ant-Man ($57.2M), and The Incredible Hulk ($55.4M). And that’s without factoring in inflation.
If you factor in inflation, the only film it bests is Ant-Man, which would see its opening weekend gross clock in at $74.3 million.
That means if the film comes in any lower than Deadline’s low end projection of $75 million for opening weekend The Marvels will indeed claim the worst opening weekend in Marvel Cinematic Universe history.
As for why the projections for The Marvels are so low, Deadline’s Anthony D’Alessandro posits, “There’s been no San Diego or NYC Comic-Con push of any kind for this movie or strutting on social due to the strike.”
He also notes, “Some sources are telling us that audiences aren’t connecting the Captain Marvel IP to the other two characters in the franchise which starred in Ms. Marvel and WandaVision.”
Furthermore, he claims, “The Marvels is well below the top performing MCU titles among men under 35 and much closer to Ant-Man in the demo.”
Box office Pro notes that the overall Marvel brand is struggling, “The franchise is, quite simply, miles away from the zeitgeist-capturing interest and enormous goodwill that for a time helped every film achieve automatic blockbuster status–like Captain Marvel did over four years ago.”
They also note that recent Disney+ series have divided the fanbase and made it difficult for people to keep up with everything, “Fans’ highly divisive reception toward most of the franchise’s Disney+ streaming series has served to lessen interest among casual fans struggling to keep up with the various plot threads in what many feel has become a disjointed post-Endgame MCU.”
The outlet went on to also claim that Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour was overshadowing the film’s early pre-sales.
It also claimed that not having Brie Larson and company promoting the film “would be a major blow in Disney’s efforts to pitch the film as a fun escapist experience, leaning into its organic ‘girl power’ marketing message to bring out underserved female audiences.”
What do you make of these new projections for The Marvels? Why do you think the projections are so low?