Report: Brie Larson’s ‘The Marvels’ Now Tracking For Atrocious $45M-$50M Opening Weekend
A new report details that Brie Larson’s upcoming film The Marvels is now tracking for an atrocious $45M-50M opening weekend.
This new report comes from World of Reel’s Jordan Ruimy who claims, “Some analysts had originally believed that a $55M – $75M domestic debut would occur for The Marvels, but I’m being told that the latest internal numbers actually point to a $45M-$50M 3-day opening. Yikes.”
One of those other analysts was Shawn Robbins at Box Office Pro who claimed in the middle of October the film would have an opening weekend between $50M and $75M. Robbins went on to predict the film would bring in a total of $121M and $189M in its entire domestic run at the box office.
— Boxoffice Pro (@BoxOffice) October 12, 2023
Following that long range prediction from Box Office Pro, Deadline reported that box office analytics firm Quorum originally informed them that the movie would bring in around $90 million in its opening weekend.
However, by the middle of October the outlet reported the “four-week lead tracking” for the film was coming in at $75 million to $80 million. That’s a decline of 11% on the low end and 16% on the high end.
Box Office Pro has since downgraded its projections for The Marvels as well. As part of their long range tracking for Wish and Napolean the outlet now predicts The Marvels will only bring in between $45M and $67M in its opening weekend.
They also predict the entire domestic haul will only be between $109M and $169M.
If The World of Reel’s projections turn out to be accurate The Marvels will become the worst performing Marvel Cinematic Universe film for an opening weekend.
Without adjusting for inflation the current film with the worst performing opening weekend is 2008’s The Incredible Hulk. It had an opening weekend of $55.4M and went on to gross $134.8M at the domestic box office. It had a global gross of $265.5M.
If you do indeed adjust for inflation, the worst performing film is 2015’s Ant-Man. The film grossed $57.2M in its opening weekend and went on to gross $180.2M domestically and $518.8M globally. Adjusting for inflation that comes to an opening weekend of $74.3M, a domestic haul of $234M and a global gross of $673.8M.
Not only will these box office projections make The Marvels the worst performing Marvel Cinematic Universe film at the box office ever, but a report from Caroline Reid at Forbes noted that the film’s production budget currently stands at $274 million.
She wrote, “The blockbuster budget is disclosed in company filings released yesterday by the Disney subsidiary which made the movie. They show that over the two-year period from the incorporation of the company to September 30, 2022, it spent $274.8 million (£221.8 million) and banked a $55 million (£44.4 million) subsidy from the government of the United Kingdom where the movie was made. This brought its net spending down to $219.8 million.”
It’s likely this is not even the final production budget as the production company incorporated in the United Kingdom will likely continue to report its financial dealings for a number of years to come as we’ve seen with Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Avengers: Endgame, and other Disney productions filmed in the United Kingdom.
The report also does not include post-production costs either.
Nevertheless, based on this initial production budget, Reid claims The Marvels will need to gross at least $439.6 million just to break even. However, this is an extremely conservative prediction using a 2x factor based on the net budget. Usually conservative predictions use a 2.5x factor which would mean the film needs to hit $549.5 million if you use the net budget that factors in the tax subsidy.
Some analysts even use a 3x factor. If you go with that standard the film would need to gross around $659.4 million to break even.
If these predictions are true it definitely looks like The Marvels will be a complete and utter stinker at the box office.
What do you make of this new report regarding The Marvels’ box office predictions?