Long range box office predictions for the upcoming Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One film are here and they look extremely low.
Box office tracking and analysis website Box Office Pro shared their early projections that the film will bring in between $65 million and $80 million in its 3-day opening weekend.
They go on to predict the film will have an entire domestic box office gross between $250 million and $320 million.
These projections are far below what the site initially predicted The Flash would bring in. They predicted back on May 19th that The Flash would have an opening weekend between $115 million and $140 million and go on to have a domestic gross total between $280 million and $375 million.
Those projections would be significantly lowered the week of The Flash’s release. On June 14th the outlet predicted the film would have an opening weekend between $60 million and $80 million.
The movie would perform far worse than even that anemic prediction only bringing in $55 million in its opening weekend.
As for why they predict Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One to only have an opening weekend between $65 million and $80 million, Box Office Pro explained, “Selling points for Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One include not only the critical and commercial success of its 2018 predecessor, Mission: Impossible – Fallout, but the enormous goodwill earned by star Tom Cruise from last year’s Top Gun: Maverick.”
They also note that pre-sales are trending 8% higher than John Wick: Chapter 4, but 15 percent behind Fast X. Of note John Wick: Chapter 4 actually had a higher opening weekend. It brought in $73.8 million in its opening weekend while Fast X only opened with $67 million. A flat 8% increase to John Wick: Chapter 4’s opening weekend would be $79.7 million.
Box Office Pro also says that the film will open on Wednesday instead of Friday to give audiences more of an opportunity to view the film on premium screens before it sees competition from Oppenheimer.
The outlet also shared what they believe are going against the film namely competition with Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer film specifically among male audiences. They also claim the film will face competition from Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, which releases two weeks ahead of Mission: Impossible.
They also claim that a cliffhanger ending “could be a blow to the series’ typical crowd-pleasing nature, depending on the tone of the film’s denouement.”
While these numbers look low, even at the low end of $65 million it would be the highest grossing opening weekend for a Mission: Impossible film in the franchise’s entire history albeit without factoring in inflation.
Mission: Impossible—Fallout, the most recent Mission: Impossible film had an opening weekend of $61.2 million back in 2018. Next on the list is Mission: Impossible 2, which opened to the tune of $57.8 million.
2015’s Mission Impossible—Rogue Nation grossed $55.5 million in its opening weekend. Mission: Impossible III raked in $47.7 million in 2006. The first Mission: Impossible film brought in $45.4 million in 1996. The worst performing one in the franchise is Mission: Impossible—Ghost Protocol. It only opened to the tune of $12.7 million.
However, it’s hard not to imagine the film at least pacing close to Tom Cruise’s latest film, Top Gun: Maverick. That film had an opening weekend of $126.7 million and would go on to gross $718.7 million at the domestic box office. It added another $760.2 million from international box offices for a global gross of $1.4 billion. It was the second highest grossing film of 2022 behind Avatar: The Way of Water.
In fact, the domestic box office this year has already shown moviegoers are willing to head to theaters for films like The Super Mario Bros. Movie, which had an opening weekend of $146.3 million and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, which opened with $120.6 million.
Those two films trend towards families, but Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 also opened with a $118.4 million.
Given Top Gun: Maverick’s opening weekend, Cruise’s commitment to the theatrical experience, the wild stunts they’ve already shared that are in the film, and recent rave early reactions, it’s hard for me to think this film won’t at least gross over $100 million in its opening weekend.
There appears to be just too much going for it, and really not a lot going against it aside from the premium theater competition. It will be interesting to see if these long predictions will rise as we get closer to the film’s release date on July 12, 2023.
What do you make of these early box office predictions for Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One? What do you think the film’s opening weekend gross will be?