New opening weekend box office projections have been revealed for Marvel Studios’ upcoming The Marvels film and it claims the film will make less than box office loser Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, and could claim the spot for not just the lowest opening weekend in Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) history, but the lowest grossing MCU film overall.
Box Office Pro shared their projects for The Marvels claiming the film will only gross between $50 million and $75 million in its domestic opening weekend.
They also predict it will bring in between $121 million and $189 million at the domestic box office.
Long Range Box Office Forecast: @MarvelStudios ’ THE MARVELS. Read the full forecast: https://t.co/uq2sTZqGSR #TheMarvels #Marvel #Disney #BoxOffice pic.twitter.com/dQcD0ZDcbE
— Boxoffice Pro (@BoxOffice) October 12, 2023
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These predictions are far lower than their initial long-range predictions for Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania earlier this year. They initially predicted the film would gross between $96 million and $131 million in its opening weekend domestically and go on to earn between $249 million and $347 million in its entire domestic run.
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania eventually had an opening weekend of $106.1 million and would go on to earn $214 million at the domestic box office for its entire theatrical run. Overall, the film grossed $463.6 million globally.
Given, Quantumania’s estimated production budget of $200 million, the movie lost at least around $22 million.
It’s quite likely The Marvels will be even a bigger a loser if even the highest projections are true. Forbes reported back in the middle of September that the film’s production budget is $274 million. However, the report also notes that the film received a $55 million tax subsidy from the United Kingdom bringing the net cost down to around $219.8 million.
However, that was not the final report regarding The Marvels’ production spend from the United Kingdom’s government and it also does not include post-production costs for the film. Thus financial analyst Valliant Renegade predicted the production was likely “$300 million if not more.”
Even if you use Forbes’ $219.8 million number, the film’s break even point is around $439.6 million given the studios split returns with theaters when it comes to box office grosses.
However, if you use Valliant Renegade’s $300 million number, the film needs to make around $750 million or more. Given the low box office predictions from Box Office Pro, it’s quite likely the film will be just another loser at the box office for The Walt Disney Company, Bob Iger, Marvel Studios, and Kevin Feige.
To add even more perspective to this, a $75 million opening weekend is less than Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, the film with the sixth worst opening weekend in Marvel Cinematic Universe history. The film had a $75.8 million gross in its opening weekend back in September 2021.
The movie only best Eternals ($71.2M), Thor ($65.7M), Captain America: The First Avenger ($65M), Ant-Man ($57.2M), and The Incredible Hulk ($55.4M). And that’s without factoring in inflation.
If you factor in inflation, the only film it bests is Ant-Man, which would see its opening weekend gross clock in at $74.3 million.
That means if the film comes in any lower than their high end projection of $75 million for opening weekend The Marvels will indeed claim the worst opening weekend in Marvel Cinematic Universe history.
As noted above, without adjusting for inflation, no film has had an opening weekend less than $55 million in the entire history of the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
Looking at Box Office Pro’s total domestic projections, if the film comes in on the low end at $121 million, it would be the worst performing MCU movie at the domestic box office without even factoring for inflation. The Incredible Hulk currently holds that title with a $134.8 million domestic total without factoring for inflation.
The worst performing film when factoring for inflation is Eternals. The film’s $164.8 million gross in 2021 now equates to $187.2 million in 2023. That means that on the high end The Marvels will just barely edge out Eternals.
The box office haul is not looking good for The Marvels.
What do you make of these predictions for The Marvels?